Well, now that I’ve won seven of nine comp releases, I’m going to carry the momentum over to the Broncos, who are finally out of the spotlight for the first time in three weeks.

This is a team that clearly got swatted around by the AFC North the past two weeks, and in all actuality, this season.

But after a bye week that followed a 6-0 start to the season, the Broncos were thrust into a showdown Baltimore, where the Ravens were also rested and found a way to stymie the boys from Mile High.

Then it was the Monday night spotlight – the biggest stage in the sport – against the defending champs.

Rookie coach Josh McDaniel had no chance. It was easy to see.

But this week, with everyone focused on New England/Indianapolis and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh, I see the Broncos quietly getting back into their groove against a troubled Washington team that will remain in deep trouble with Jim Zorn at the helm.

I’ve heard horror stories about coaches before, but in speaking with a former Redskin this week, who was there in Zorn’s inaugural season, I can tell you with certainty he gets no respect from his players.

Not like McDaniel, who has come in with a plan, made no secrets who he is going to war with and has gotten the job done, quite frankly. Losses to the Ravens and Steelers mean nothing more than there’s work to be done against the league’s elite.

But when you’re playing the bowels of the league – which the Redskins most cerainly are – there’s no reason to take the foot off the pedal. This is a game that is in the shadows of some of the bigger matchups today.

And sometimes, it’s in the shadows, where no one expects it, we find value.

Play Denver – it’s the better team and we’re getting value by getting to lay such a low number thanks to two understandable losses the last two weeks.
5♦ DENVER BRONCOS

I’m 8-2 with my last 10 FREE selections and today I’m loving the Broncos as they are in Washington to take on the Redskins.

Denver has got to be in desperation mode right now after having dropped two straight and the Chargers breathing down their necks in the AFC West Division standings. And they get the Redskins who can’t score more than 17 points, so if the Broncos can get three touchdowns, this is an easy cover.

The Broncos’ defense is third in the NFL in yards allowed at 280.2 and points allowed, 15.5 ppg. They can certainly stop teams as they’ve proven with excellent efforts against New England, Dallas, Cincinnati and a good effort in San Diego against the Chargers.

Washington is in a state of disarray with all the words going back and forth between former players, the ownership, coaches and players. The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game this season and they have cashed in just one game this season. They are 0-4 ATS at home and last time they were here they gave up 27 first-half points to the Eagles and lost 27-17 as nine-point underdogs.

The Redskins are just 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 overall, 1-6 ATS against teams with winning records, 1-4-1 as a home ‘dog and 0-5-1 in November contests.

I don’t see the Redskins’ offense putting up more than 14 points in this one while Denver will not only score on offense a few times, but I expect their defense to score. Lay the small chalk and play the Broncos as this one ends up 24-14.
4♦ DENVER

For Sunday’s freebie in the NFL, take the Jaguars plus the points at the Jets.

Who is New York to be laying this kind of number against anyone? When last we saw the Jets two weeks ago, they were losing 30-25 at home to Miami as a 3½-point favorite.

That came two weeks after a 16-13 home loss to the crappy Bills as a 9½-point favorite. In fact, since starting the season 3-0 SU and ATS, New York has lost four of its last five both SU and ATS, going 1-3 ATS as a favorite. The one win? 38-0 over the Raiders – does that even count anymore?

As for Jacksonville, it has won four of its last six since opening the season with consecutive losses. Granted, the Jags’ last two defeats came on the road and in ugly fashion (41-0 at Seattle; 30-13 at Tennessee). But this is the same team that won at Houston earlier this year (31-24 as a four-point underdog) and went to Indy on Opening Day and gave the Colts all they could handle before falling 14-12, but covering as a 6½-point ‘dog.

While Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a sizeable underdog (3½ to 10 points), the Jets have failed to cover in eight of 10 as a favorite, five of six as a home favorite and six of seven when laying 3½ to 10 points. And for what it’s worth, the Jaguars covered in the last five straight meetings with the Jets from 1999-2006, going 4-1 SU (New York’s lone win was a three-point home victory).

Bottom line: The Jets’ offense has scored more than 25 points just twice this year (and that includes the rout at Oakland), and it is averaging just 19.5 ppg in four home contests. And with a slumping Mark Sanchez (4 TDs, 8 INTs last five games) at the controls, it’s an offense that just isn’t dynamic enough to cover this kind of number. The Dolphins proved that in New York two weeks ago, as did Buffalo two weeks before that. Grab the big points.
3♦ Jacksonville (based on a 1♦ to 10♦ scale)

Detroit @ Minnesota 1:00 PM EST
Play On: Minnesota -16 1/2

Detroit is 1-7 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 the past 3 years. Detroit is 1-6 ATS this year against conference opponents. Detroit is allowing 29.6 points per game overall this year and 37.7 points per game on the road this season.

Minnesota is scoring 30.5 points per game overall this year and 30 points per game at home this season. Lions are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC North. Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Lions are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Lions are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 10. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Vikings are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC North. Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November. Lions are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. We’ll recommend a small play on Minnesota today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky